DoubleLine Warns of Hidden AI Capex Risks in Corporate Bonds

Mariya Entina, a corporate credit portfolio manager at DoubleLine, argues that the current AI spending spree is no longer confined to the technology sector. In a research paper titled "Trickle-Down AI-conomics," she notes that first-quarter earnings in 2026 reached multi-year highs even as companies recorded the largest cash drawdowns in the history of the investment-grade cohort. These expenditures now ripple into utilities, manufacturers, and infrastructure firms.

This creates a precarious situation for investors who believe their high-grade fixed-income allocations are shielded from tech-sector volatility. Entina warns that if AI-related capital expenditure growth falters, the resulting earnings impairment will hit a far wider range of issuers than anticipated. Rather than attempting to pick AI winners, she suggests that active credit management now requires selecting firms capable of weathering a potential slowdown in spending. DoubleLine’s credit team, which oversees $9 billion in assets, is currently adjusting its risk assessments to account for these hidden correlations, moving away from the assumption that current spending levels represent a durable economic trend.