Jamie Dimon on Bonds, Iran, and the Future of New York

Dimon remains deeply skeptical of the bond market, stating bluntly that he would not buy long-dated government bonds at current yields. He questioned the credibility of official inflation statistics, citing his experience as an economic historian to warn that current fiscal deficits and global debt levels mirror the precarious environment of the 1970s. For Dimon, the market is currently underestimating the risk of persistent inflation, leaving little upside for investors.

On the geopolitical front, he proposed a strategy of yearlong economic strangulation for Iran. He argued that the American public would accept temporary spikes in gas prices if the trade-off prevents a nuclear-armed Iran, framing the issue as a choice between immediate economic discomfort and long-term existential risk. Regarding the AI investment frenzy, he confirmed his belief in the technology's transformative power but predicted a dot-com style reckoning. Companies currently pouring millions into AI will soon face rigorous scrutiny, with many failing to deliver the expected returns while only a few emerge as true winners.

Dimon also signaled growing frustration with New York City’s governance, noting that JPMorgan’s local headcount has dropped from 35,000 to 26,000 over the past two decades. He has personally warned Mayor Zohran Mamdani that cities are no longer captive environments for large corporations. By contrasting New York’s regulatory and tax climate with the growth seen in Texas, Dimon suggested that the bank’s future in the city is not guaranteed. He emphasized that modern leaders must prioritize business-friendly environments, noting that the rise of competitive alternatives gives corporations unprecedented mobility.