Study Finds US Consumers Foot 96% of Tariff Bill

After reviewing more than 25 million shipment records from the previous year, researchers at the Kiel Institute found that foreign exporters absorbed only 4% of $200 billion in tariff payments. The remaining 96% was passed directly to domestic importers and consumers. The study characterizes the tariffs not as a levy on foreign entities, but as a consumption tax on the American public.

Julian Hinz, a research director at the institute, described the policy as an "own goal" that disproportionately harms domestic interests. The findings suggest that exporters rarely slash prices to remain competitive in the U.S. market, opting instead to shift sales to other regions or maintain prices to avoid signaling weakness. This analysis arrives as the administration threatens further duties on European nations, a move economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research estimates could function as a $75 billion tax increase on Americans.