Mathematical Model Proposes Four-Pronged Strategy for Mpox Control

Professor Kasbawati and her team developed a complex model tracking transmission dynamics between human and rodent populations. By accounting for asymptomatic human cases and latent infections in rodents, the researchers simulated four distinct interventions. Vaccination was designed to lower susceptibility, treatment to accelerate recovery, quarantine to restrict contact, and education to shift community behavior.

The findings indicate that while all interventions contribute to suppression, they function best in tandem. Early-stage outbreak management relies heavily on quarantine and education to blunt the initial transmission spike, while vaccination and treatment sustain control over extended periods. The study highlights that rodents act as a persistent viral reservoir, suggesting that long-term Mpox management requires addressing transmission within these animal populations to reach an infection-free state.

"Our findings highlight the potential value of a coordinated, multi-layered approach to Mpox control rather than relying on a single intervention," said Kasbawati. The research, which identifies the combined strategy as the most cost-efficient path forward, provides a framework for public health officials to evaluate how various measures can be layered to suppress outbreaks and minimize long-term viral circulation.