Why US tariffs failed to bring back manufacturing

Despite the Trump administration's efforts to decouple from China, the global supply chain remains deeply interconnected. Instead of bringing production back to American soil, tariffs have largely driven goods through intermediaries like Mexico and Malaysia. According to Smith, whose company manages complex trade networks for logistics providers and governments, the net result has been increased costs rather than a surge in local blue-collar employment.

Manufacturing output has shown signs of recovery recently, but this uptick is largely tied to industrial automation rather than a return to traditional assembly lines. As the U.S. and other Western powers grapple with economic security, the focus has shifted toward traceability and controlling critical minerals. Smith argues that the future of trade lies in agentic AI and "product passports"—tools designed to provide visibility into the provenance of goods. While geopolitics and trade barriers create constant volatility, the industry is moving toward a model where technology manages the friction of an increasingly fractured global economy.